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So why is this line so low at all? Simply put, an irrational respect for the magic of Tom Brady. Unfortunately, a closer look shows a reality far messier year to year: Four times, favorites only managed a split in the divisional round, but in three years swept the underdogs and the remaining three got a SU result. Making things easier for NFL bettors is the remarkable consistency favorites hit.

Divisional-round favorites are naturally even more consistent: Favorites have neither swept nor been swept ATS in this century. Johnny Hekker has yet to throw a pass in after averaging nearly 3 attempts per in his first eight seasons. At SU, the Packers lost just once by more than 6 points — at Tampa Bay in week 6, certainly to be brought up ad nauseum should we get the rematch in the NFC Championship.

To double down or not to double down…? Additionally, the Ravens have averaged a big Now NFLbets has boxed ourselves in to covering the Chiefs, crummy line and all. So can Cleveland keep matters to within a touchdown and a half? These Browns have been wildly inconsistent in terms of scoring, going for 42 against the Ravens in week 13, only to not see that many points in subsequent games against the Giants and Jets combined. Weather is no indicator, either, with conditions at kickoff in Kansas City essentially identical to those for the aforementioned games.

With a 3-point handicap given to the visitors, sportsbooks are more or less indicating that this game is even-up in a neutral location. Chargers and Carolina Panthers. History says that the team who goes SU in the regular season against their playoff opponent advances in the playoffs.

Add to this the relatively miniscule point spread, third-smallest ever for a third meeting and shortest since , and we can probably agree this factor is neutralized as well. For more on these 21 meeting, see the recent piece at Football Perspective entitled How hard is it to beat a team three times in one season? Beyond Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Brady has helped developed second-year pro Scott Miller into a viable third and often second option while enjoying the late reemergences of Rob Gronkowski 7 TD catches in the last 11 games and Antonio Brown 5 in the last four games.

So playing on turf hurts which of these guys…? Back to the regular-season sweep of the Buccaneers of which much has been made, the credence we may give those wins should probably be tempered slightly. Since the second loss to the Saints, the Bucs are averaging a huge You can likely tell where NFLbets is going with this, but what of those Saints? How Drew Brees will fare gritting out one more game after breaking 11 ribs, but the Saints have somehow managed a ATS record with a fairly low-watt passing game — just three times since the second Buccaneers game have New Orleans quarterbacks went for more than yards.

In analyzing these games, there comes a point when one can have too many numbers and we have officially reached that point. Note: NFLbets is writing this up on Sunday morning and so can never complain about bad beats or chase after losses — both plusses for the bankroll, no matter how Saturday went. NFL bettors and general NFL fandom alike are taking for granted that this is a guaranteed barnburner and so pound away at the over — particularly as the sportsbooks have this point spread set the shorterst by a significant margin.

So how does the under hit here at all? The over has hit once, in the overtime win of week 11 this season. No matter: The Tennessee Titans defense, which was good to excellent most of the year and dominant in their first two playoff games, evaporated at some point in August. As a result, overs are an incredible in Titans games. As for Baltimore on the defensive side, begin with their having seen the third-least number of runs all season.

Now, getting to 55 points should require at least six touchdowns along with five field goals or seven TDs and two FGs. The latter seems more likely, but even both Henry and Jackson et al romping freely through helpless defenses may not be enough for this many scoring opportunities. The sole exception was in none other than the Beast Mode Activated game when the Seattle Seahawks upset the seemingly Super Bowl-bound New Orleans Saints imagine that in a seat-edger.

So is it as simple as deducing that no Chicago player can work miracles like Marshawn Lynch and therefore bet Saints minus the points? And the Bears were just one of the six teams of. But Cleveland not only played limply against the Pittsburgh second-string in week 17, the Browns are going into this game down two OL starters not great news against a pass rush spearheaded by T. As much as NFLbets distrusts the Saints, however, these Steelers are looking like the archetypical team who peaked too soon.

Asking a team with a long past of failure and a roster composed of mostly inexperienced guys to win their first playoff game without a head coach may be a big ask, but keeping things to within a touchdown when temperatures are in the low 30s? And now for the first time ever, the NFL playoffs features back-to-back tripleheaders to get things started. See: Year is already better than Now, as we get the ball rolling on this newfangled sort of opening playoff weekend, NFLbets is weighing heavily upon determining upset specials.

At least this playoff opener is easy:. Were the Bills actually helped by the lack of bye week? Whereas conventional wisdom holds that the first-week bye is invaluable in the playoffs, the red-hot Bills hosting in ice-cold Buffalo may not exactly mind eschewing the free time to keep the increasingly fearsome-looking snowball rolling apace.

And whoa, is Buffalo rolling. The Bills face the Colts, who earn accolades as the greatest no. Primarily because Indianapolis is the lowest-scoring second-half team remaining in the AFC and Philip Rivers still brings the lowest QB rating in the final 30 minutes. Yes, we should expect regress to the mean after eight straight ATS wins, but just look at the way these Bills are playing right now.

Take the Buffalo Bills -7 vs Indianapolis. Ah, now this looks like some upset material. But Seattle, like the Pittsburgh Steelers, look lumbering coming into this game as well as limited in weaponry. Sure, the Seahawks are on a SU run, but are just ATS in that span which included only two games against playoff teams: at Washington and vs these Rams.

While the offense has improved from sieve-level porous would you believe Metcalf as a deep threat; in two games against Jalen Ramsey and the L. Tom Brady mystique aside, the smart bet here is probably still on the chalk. The only hesitance here is abstract. We stand by this NFL sports betting method. The algorithm takes into account many parameters, including the history of each NFL team, the weather, injuries, referees, starting players, coaches - all of this in order to find out the likely outcome of the NFL game for your best nfl bets today.

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In weeks 6 through 16 in his reunification with Brady, Gronkowski was good for 3 catches on just under 6 targets per game with 7 TDs to boot. So why does NFLbets like this bet so much? In the NFC Championship game, he played four snaps, threw three killer blocks and caught one key pass for 29 yards. We believe that there is a special part of the playbook earmarked for Gronkowski and that Brady will be looking for the safety valve, possibly early and probably late.

Near as NFLbets can tell, the no. NFLbets is clearly paddling against the tide on this one. But hey, since after the wild-card round NFLbets has been pushing the over, no matter the number, regardless of matchup — and for good reason. With four teams remaining in the postseason, not one sported a defense that was top 10 against the pass, against the run or in defensive DVOA.

In , defense may be optional for the winner. Add to this a well below-average defense — they rank 21 st in yards allowed despite seeing just the 19 th -most attempts — facing off against the increasingly unstoppable Leonard Fournette, and NFLbets expects the Chiefs to be surrendering some points. But if Tampa Bay is scoring, we can certainly bet on Kansas City keeping pace.

Purely pragmatically speaking, K. The knock, if any, on the Chiefs offense for the second half of the season has been no running game. The point: Both teams are going to throw a lot, both could well be quite successful, and points will be scored. In week 7, these teams played to in Tampa. Would, likesay, Buccaneers or Chiefs be an unreasonable result?

One final note. Betting on the NFL playoffs can prove quite profitable — if one can recognize the truth among a forest of blaring narrative pumped out by media outlets. This is the time of year when we have the opportunity to realize that historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; postseason play may differ significantly from that of the regular season, but mathematics and certain realities never really change. In this century, the only team not named the New England Patriots to do so is the Seattle Seahawks, and NFLbets dares say that team had a defense substantially superior to what the Kansas City Chiefs are bringing.

Meanwhile, all the Bills have been doing since their week 6 loss to K. Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will both be returning from injuries as well. All three have been limited or non-existent at practices through Friday. The quarterback has made the proverbial Leap, flipping from near the bottom to near the top of the completion percentage charts during an MVP-type season.

Stefon Diggs proved a perfect superstar addition and, with the Patriots fading, a changing of the guard in the AFC East is happening. How much of an outlier was that game? So why is this line so low at all? Simply put, an irrational respect for the magic of Tom Brady. Unfortunately, a closer look shows a reality far messier year to year: Four times, favorites only managed a split in the divisional round, but in three years swept the underdogs and the remaining three got a SU result.

Making things easier for NFL bettors is the remarkable consistency favorites hit. Divisional-round favorites are naturally even more consistent: Favorites have neither swept nor been swept ATS in this century. Johnny Hekker has yet to throw a pass in after averaging nearly 3 attempts per in his first eight seasons. At SU, the Packers lost just once by more than 6 points — at Tampa Bay in week 6, certainly to be brought up ad nauseum should we get the rematch in the NFC Championship.

To double down or not to double down…? Additionally, the Ravens have averaged a big Now NFLbets has boxed ourselves in to covering the Chiefs, crummy line and all. So can Cleveland keep matters to within a touchdown and a half? These Browns have been wildly inconsistent in terms of scoring, going for 42 against the Ravens in week 13, only to not see that many points in subsequent games against the Giants and Jets combined.

Weather is no indicator, either, with conditions at kickoff in Kansas City essentially identical to those for the aforementioned games. With a 3-point handicap given to the visitors, sportsbooks are more or less indicating that this game is even-up in a neutral location. Chargers and Carolina Panthers. History says that the team who goes SU in the regular season against their playoff opponent advances in the playoffs. Add to this the relatively miniscule point spread, third-smallest ever for a third meeting and shortest since , and we can probably agree this factor is neutralized as well.

For more on these 21 meeting, see the recent piece at Football Perspective entitled How hard is it to beat a team three times in one season? Beyond Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Brady has helped developed second-year pro Scott Miller into a viable third and often second option while enjoying the late reemergences of Rob Gronkowski 7 TD catches in the last 11 games and Antonio Brown 5 in the last four games. So playing on turf hurts which of these guys…? Back to the regular-season sweep of the Buccaneers of which much has been made, the credence we may give those wins should probably be tempered slightly.

Since the second loss to the Saints, the Bucs are averaging a huge You can likely tell where NFLbets is going with this, but what of those Saints? How Drew Brees will fare gritting out one more game after breaking 11 ribs, but the Saints have somehow managed a ATS record with a fairly low-watt passing game — just three times since the second Buccaneers game have New Orleans quarterbacks went for more than yards.

In analyzing these games, there comes a point when one can have too many numbers and we have officially reached that point. Note: NFLbets is writing this up on Sunday morning and so can never complain about bad beats or chase after losses — both plusses for the bankroll, no matter how Saturday went.

NFL bettors and general NFL fandom alike are taking for granted that this is a guaranteed barnburner and so pound away at the over — particularly as the sportsbooks have this point spread set the shorterst by a significant margin. So how does the under hit here at all? The over has hit once, in the overtime win of week 11 this season. No matter: The Tennessee Titans defense, which was good to excellent most of the year and dominant in their first two playoff games, evaporated at some point in August.

As a result, overs are an incredible in Titans games. As for Baltimore on the defensive side, begin with their having seen the third-least number of runs all season. Now, getting to 55 points should require at least six touchdowns along with five field goals or seven TDs and two FGs. The latter seems more likely, but even both Henry and Jackson et al romping freely through helpless defenses may not be enough for this many scoring opportunities. The sole exception was in none other than the Beast Mode Activated game when the Seattle Seahawks upset the seemingly Super Bowl-bound New Orleans Saints imagine that in a seat-edger.

So is it as simple as deducing that no Chicago player can work miracles like Marshawn Lynch and therefore bet Saints minus the points? Compared to other Betting Football Prediction sites, the best information is available here. Best Soccer Facts and Predictions Football Match Facts. Wolves vs Southampton. Top Prediction: Under 2. Barnsley vs Chelsea. Top Prediction: Away Team Win. Paid Soccer Predictions.

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Betting on sports and playing casino games is something that people have been doing for a long time. However, we no longer have to go Now, there How to successfully fund your online betting account Although there are still people who only want to know whether there are enough sports that they can punt on, most gamblers have learned that These services See all betting resources Embed the predictions table to your site by copying the code below.

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